El Nino and AMOC – Impact on the Climate and the Insurance Industry

El Nino and AMOC – Impact on the Climate and the Insurance Industry

Presenter : Ian Gould, Department Manager – CS Operations, Property Claims, NFU Mutual

Could climate patterns developing thousands of miles away influence future insurance claims in the UK?

Floods, storms, subsidence and weather-related losses continue to create significant challenges for insurers, customers and communities. At the same time, terms such as El Niño and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are increasingly appearing in news headlines, climate reports and scientific discussions.

But what do they really mean for the insurance industry?

In this engaging and accessible session, Ian Gould explores how these climate phenomena may influence weather patterns, claims trends and operational resilience. Drawing on both current climate research and practical claims leadership experience, the presentation cuts through the headlines to separate evidence from speculation and examines the potential implications for insurers, customers and claims operations.

Participants will gain insight into emerging climate risks, understand what these developments could mean for the future of insurance, and consider practical actions that can improve preparedness, resilience and customer outcomes. 

Whether you work in claims, underwriting, broking, risk management or leadership, this session will help you:

✅ Understand the difference between El Niño and AMOC 

✅ Separate scientific evidence from media headlines 

✅ Explore the potential impact on UK weather and insurance claims 

✅ Identify practical actions to improve organisational resilience 

✅ Consider the future challenges facing the insurance industry 

“Uncertainty is not a reason to wait. It is a reason to prepare.”

Learning Objectives

By the end of the session, participants will be able to:

·         Explain what El Niño and AMOC are and how they differ in timescale, certainty and relevance to UK insurance

·         Recognise how a strong El Niño can shift the odds towards wetter, stormier or more volatile weather conditions

·         Identify the potential insurance implications, including claims surge, supply chain disruption, repair capacity challenges and claims inflation

·         Assess practical readiness questions around surge planning, supplier capacity and customer support

·         Understand why AMOC weakening is best treated as a strategic scenario-planning issue rather than an imminent forecast

Speaker Biography 

Ian Gould is Department Manager – CS Operations, Property Claims at NFU Mutual and leads operational teams responsible for delivering customer outcomes across Property Claims. 

With extensive experience managing weather related surge events, operational resilience, supplier networks and claims performance, Ian has a particular interest in the impact of climate volatility on the insurance industry. 

Drawing on current climate research alongside practical claims leadership experience, Ian provides a balanced and accessible perspective on one of the most important emerging topics facing insurers today. 

Refreshments will be available during the presentation. Afterwards, everyone is warmly invited to stay for informal networking at the bar (cash bar), where you'll have the chance to meet our presenter Ian Gould and our President David Codling.