How the Economy Affects Insurance Rates
How the Economy Affects Insurance Rates
Session Overview
Why do commercial insurance premiums so often rise at precisely the moment businesses can least afford them? Through five real-world case studies from the past 25 years — the September 11 attacks, the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, the inflationary period of 2021–24, and the geopolitical conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East — this session examines how economic shocks transmit into insurance pricing, capacity and availability, tests the counter-cyclical thesis, and draws out practical implications for every insurance professional.
Session Covers
› The hard/soft market cycle — and what drives the switch
› Case Study 1: September 11 (2001) — reinsurance collapse
› Case Study 2: Global Financial Crisis (2008) — the counter-example
› Case Study 3: COVID-19 (2020–22) — multi-line perfect storm
› Case Study 4: Inflation & rising interest rates (2021–24)
› Case Study 5: Russia-Ukraine & Israel-Gaza conflicts
› Synthesis: does the counter-cyclical thesis hold?
Implications for brokers, underwriters and risk managers
Session structure
› Introduction & welcome 5 min
› Presentation with case studies 30 min
› Live audience polls (×5)
› Questions & open discussion 20 min
› CPD reflection & close 5 min
Who should attend
› Brokers and account executives
› Underwriters and risk managers
› Claims and compliance professionals
Anyone wanting to understand market pricing dynamics
Learning Objectives
On completion of this session, members will be able to:
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1 |
Explain the insurance underwriting cycle — distinguishing hard and soft market conditions and identifying the economic mechanisms that drive the transition between them. |
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2 |
Analyse how major economic events of the past 25 years — including 9/11, the Global Financial Crisis, COVID-19, post-pandemic inflation and current geopolitical conflicts — have shaped insurance pricing, capacity and availability, with reference to specific evidence. |
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3 |
Evaluate the counter-cyclical thesis: assess where insurance rates tend to rise during economic downturns and critically identify where and why that relationship breaks down. |
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4 |
Describe the role of reinsurance capacity, investment returns and capital flows in determining whether an economic shock produces a hard insurance market. |
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5 |
Apply these insights to their own professional practice — whether as a broker advising on renewal strategy, an underwriter managing portfolio discipline, or a risk manager planning for hard market conditions. |
About the Trainer
Duncan Leask Dip CII
Managing Director, Monuments Consultancy Ltd
Duncan is an experienced insurance professional and trainer who delivers CPD sessions, masterclasses and commercial skills workshops for insurers, MGAs and insurance institutes across the UK, Asia and Australia
His work focuses on helping insurance professionals build the commercial awareness, market knowledge and client-facing skills needed to grow sustainable books of business — bringing a practical, market-grounded approach rooted in real-world trading experience. Duncan holds the Diploma in Insurance from the Chartered Insurance Institute.
Venue
